Jonathan McNiven
Well, Folks, what an election and upset that I did not even see coming until the evening before the election when I posted on my Facebook page. (See my Facebook posting on the eve of Election day to the right). And, in fact, I did not see really any HOPE until the evening before and I’ll explain why.
But first, I want to assure those who were supporting Clinton that I completely know what you are thinking and feeling as I went through the exact same feelings four years ago when I was on the Montana Mitt Romney campaign. In fact, I was on both his presidential campaigns when he ran against John McCain in the Primary (and lost) and then the next general election cycle running against Obama (and lost again).
I was devastated, shocked, worried, terrified, deflated, dismayed and felt like I lost all motivation and hope in our society. In fact, I even personally thought the world was coming to an end (faster than I wanted). Believe me, you will be able to get through it as I did 4 years ago but it took time, and personal reflection for me to get back up on my feet again.
After the shock and awe effect of Romney losing, I was bound and determined to revisit why I had my hopes up and was so emotional when he lost. I took a really hard look at why I felt that way when I started looking into the poll numbers and election climate and what was going on.
I distinctly remember many Republicans and pundits trying to explain the poll numbers like Fox News and Rush Limbaugh in that they were all saying that the polls were over sampling Democrats and that is why the polls were off. Once I heard it from another source, I felt complacent and then started justifying the data and urgency in that the liberal media was just biased and not reporting it correctly. Then, I remembered being on a campaign evening conference call and the moderator mentioned the oversampling of Democrats for the polls.
After the election defeat, and after being distraught and confused, I turned to a good friend who had predicted the outcome the day before the election. He told me it was over before the results came out. I asked him how he knew it, and he said he looked at all the polls and data that were coming out, and none of the polls were changing before the election. He was right in that there was not much urgency on the campaign, no bombshells that would change or influence the outcome, nor was there really anything going on in regards to the ground game that was different.
It was from that experience that I learned to look at all the data objectively, (not just 2 or 3 polls that I favor but many) and see the changing trends leading up to the final day. I’ve learned that data does not lie unless it is incorrectly gathered. From that day on and in other business experiences, I’ve learned to take the emotion out of it and look at the data objectively. Hence, my Facebook post which is included with my Meanderings section.
In the weeks leading up to this election day, I was really looking at the polling data and numbers while watching the amount of energy and people attending the rallies. Clinton was bringing in celebrities and barely getting 4,500 attendees while Trump was consistently bringing large crowds in the realm of 15-20,000 and even up to 30,000 attendees like New Hampshire the night of. The energy and attendance at the Trump rallies dwarfed those of the Clinton rallies, but that was something the media was not showing unless I really looked hard. (For that part, I had to look to other sources.)
Leading up to this election, I saw that Trump announced three or four campaign stops at airplane hangars where he was consistently drawing huge crowds that had a lot of energy and then adding more stops as he went. In fact, I caught an insight that the campaign wasn’t saying publicly about other options they had in other states, but vamped up their campaign stops to five rallies each day, and then kicked it into even higher gear with six rallies the last day of campaigning to the point that they announced an abrupt return trip back to Michigan after New Hampshire that night. At midnight, about 18,000 people chanted and awaited Trumps return in Michigan. (Note that Michigan and New Hampshire do not have early voting.)
After watching all these events, debates, and rallies on “Facebook LIVE” leading up to the election eve, I also noticed that there were up to 160,000 connections watching Trump TV (as I call it) go from rally to rally. After watching the campaign going into the last day, I had chills going through my body from the suspense and energy his crowds were giving. I knew there was something happening that had to be taken into account that the polls were not catching somehow, and that’s where I posted my Facebook post trying to make sense of it and referring to a silent majority that was possibly out there. I personally said a quiet prayer and put it into God’s hands and remember mentioning to myself, “Not my will but thy will.”
After the election, I heard so many pundits, news anchors, and pollsters and the world say they were all caught off guard and didn’t see the ground swell developing which peaked at the right time to give Donald Trump an upset like no other in history. I personally didn’t see a possibility of it happening until the night before and am still in awe of what just happened myself.
If President-Elect Trump’s administration is anything like the campaign he just ran and anything like his businesses he’s built along with his endurance, stamina and focus, we, as a people, all better be ready for one heck of a ride because I take him at his word when he just said the real work has just begun.
I have more analysis to write about this phenomenon that just happened, but I don’t have time to opine as I’m late going to press!
Until then,
See you in the paper!
JDM
